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Thread: Long shot

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    Default Long shot

    Saints to win GF, Lachlan Coote to finish leading points scorer. And Regan to top the try scoring list.
    £5@66/1.
    Not bad odds.

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    I read the title and thought 'No - I hope he's ok'.

    Please don't do that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Weetabix View Post
    I read the title and thought 'No - I hope he's ok'.

    Please don't do that.
    Very very good

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    I'm not sure why us and sister botherers are the same price to win the thing.

    There's no top try scorer market on Laddie's at the moment but I will do my usual both our wingers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angry Dave View Post
    I'm not sure why us and sister botherers are the same price to win the thing.
    How would you price it?

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    Quote Originally Posted by The booze hound View Post
    How would you price it?
    I think 9/4 is a short price before the season has kicked off although it's obvious why we're favourites. From memory the Fav normally starts at 3-1/4-1 or there abouts. I think W***n are worthy 2nd Fav but I don't think they're the same as us on paper.

    It seems to me the bookies have decided it will be one or the other and lumped us both in together but making it a hard backers market. Personally I'd have gone us @ 3/1 and them @ 4/1 especially with Wire currently @ 11/2.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angry Dave View Post
    I think 9/4 is a short price before the season has kicked off although it's obvious why we're favourites. From memory the Fav normally starts at 3-1/4-1 or there abouts. I think W***n are worthy 2nd Fav but I don't think they're the same as us on paper.

    It seems to me the bookies have decided it will be one or the other and lumped us both in together but making it a hard backers market. Personally I'd have gone us @ 3/1 and them @ 4/1 especially with Wire currently @ 11/2.
    With them pipping us to the league leaders shield and us winning the grand final by the width of a post it’s probably fair to stick us as joint favourites. On paper although I’d agree we are stronger there are more unknowns as to how our new signings will fit in and adapt to super league. Wigan have a known quantity in Bateman coming in to replace O’Loughlin. Their unknown quantity is Field and if he doesn’t cut it they’ve got their 1/6/7/9 from last season to fall back on. Going to be a cracking season and I can’t wait for it to start!
    Forwards win games. The backs decide by how much.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wee Waa Womble View Post
    With them pipping us to the league leaders shield and us winning the grand final by the width of a post it’s probably fair to stick us as joint favourites. On paper although I’d agree we are stronger there are more unknowns as to how our new signings will fit in and adapt to super league. Wigan have a known quantity in Bateman coming in to replace O’Loughlin. Their unknown quantity is Field and if he doesn’t cut it they’ve got their 1/6/7/9 from last season to fall back on. Going to be a cracking season and I can’t wait for it to start!
    True enough, I forgot about Bateman to be honest. Let's not forget though, they very much had the rub of the green with LLS.

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    Quote Originally Posted by The Wee Waa Womble View Post
    With them pipping us to the league leaders shield and us winning the grand final by the width of a post it’s probably fair to stick us as joint favourites. On paper although I’d agree we are stronger there are more unknowns as to how our new signings will fit in and adapt to super league. Wigan have a known quantity in Bateman coming in to replace O’Loughlin. Their unknown quantity is Field and if he doesn’t cut it they’ve got their 1/6/7/9 from last season to fall back on. Going to be a cracking season and I can’t wait for it to start!
    I think the goons massively overachieved last year. 2 balls bouncing off the posts stopped them from being champions and im not ignoring that, but still, i can’t believe they did so well last year. Lam must be a better coach than i gave him credit for.
    screaming in the family corner, scaring the kiddies

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    End of the day it's like setting odds for a cup competition. You go with the side who won it the last two years and stick the runners up close second. It's not a simple thing to put odds on because the best team can lose a semi final and not even make it to the GF. If we were talking who finishes top of the pile I'd have us close to evens as I don't think anyone lives with us over 25 games all being well, but in a Final Wigan have every chance of turning us over, and that's what the odds are for basically. You can't regard Wire or Leeds as that long odds because again, they can lose 10-12 games and finish 4th but they're only 2 games away from being there. The odds aren't really a reflection of quality and season long success, they're based on who can win 2 or 3 games in October. It's a tough job for the bookies so they play safe really.

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    I wouldn't waste your money chaps, we all know whose year it is.

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    Saints and Wigan for me although I have a sneaky feeling that Leeds will go well with Long there as assistant coach. Having said that they have lost a couple of players to injuries already.

    Wigan will go well. Bateman is a huge boost, Field will give them the X factor and they will have Marshall and Manfredi too plus a fully fit Gildart so they will be much stronger. Their younger lads will be a year older too like Havard for example and they have the motivation of losing the Final the way that they did.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reacher View Post
    Saints and Wigan for me although I have a sneaky feeling that Leeds will go well with Long there as assistant coach. Having said that they have lost a couple of players to injuries already.

    Wigan will go well. Bateman is a huge boost, Field will give them the X factor and they will have Marshall and Manfredi too plus a fully fit Gildart so they will be much stronger. Their younger lads will be a year older too like Havard for example and they have the motivation of losing the Final the way that they did.
    Gildart is quality. I really rate him

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wolfie McWolf View Post
    I wouldn't waste your money chaps, we all know whose year it is.
    Ha ha ha.

    I think you will win the cup in all honesty

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Fridge View Post
    Gildart is quality. I really rate him
    We have Gildart+1 back fit.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reacher View Post
    Saints and Wigan for me although I have a sneaky feeling that Leeds will go well with Long there as assistant coach. Having said that they have lost a couple of players to injuries already.

    Wigan will go well. Bateman is a huge boost, Field will give them the X factor and they will have Marshall and Manfredi too plus a fully fit Gildart so they will be much stronger. Their younger lads will be a year older too like Havard for example and they have the motivation of losing the Final the way that they did.
    From checking the odds across the board for GF winners you can see what a mess the top 6 knock-out play-off system is when the 8th favourites (Cas) are as low as 12/1 with several bookies. I think the 8th favourites for the PL would be about 200/1 most seasons! Leeds at 11/1 with a few bookies look the best odds given they'll make the 6 and are then only 2 wins away from the GF.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Reacher View Post
    Saints and Wigan for me although I have a sneaky feeling that Leeds will go well with Long there as assistant coach. Having said that they have lost a couple of players to injuries already.

    Wigan will go well. Bateman is a huge boost, Field will give them the X factor and they will have Marshall and Manfredi too plus a fully fit Gildart so they will be much stronger. Their younger lads will be a year older too like Havard for example and they have the motivation of losing the Final the way that they did.
    I can see why Wigan start same odds as us. For a start they get Bateman back and we've lost Thompson. Thats effectively a swing of 2 world class players in Wigan's favour. We can thank flotsam like Hull KR, Wakefield etc for that one since they know their vote to anchor the SC gives them more of a chance of in striking it lucky vis-a-vis with us in recruiting over the hill NRL players as opposed to having to develop/bring in players with the quality of LT.

    I'm not bought in on Field but Manfredi is a big boost that's under the radar. He's a tough, skilful winger who they have missed. Their 'let go's' is about right as well though I'm heartened they kept their nightclub doorman, Tony Clubb.

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    Quote Originally Posted by eddiewaringsflatcap View Post
    I can see why Wigan start same odds as us. For a start they get Bateman back and we've lost Thompson. Thats effectively a swing of 2 world class players in Wigan's favour. We can thank flotsam like Hull KR, Wakefield etc for that one since they know their vote to anchor the SC gives them more of a chance of in striking it lucky vis-a-vis with us in recruiting over the hill NRL players as opposed to having to develop/bring in players with the quality of LT.

    I'm not bought in on Field but Manfredi is a big boost that's under the radar. He's a tough, skilful winger who they have missed. Their 'let go's' is about right as well though I'm heartened they kept their nightclub doorman, Tony Clubb.
    If we finished 1 and 2 and ended up in a Grand Final who would be massively confident about beating them? We're a better team, but in a one off game anything goes. The odds merely reflect that I would say.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angry Dave View Post
    We have Gildart+1 back fit.
    Agreed.
    If Percival can stay fit (and it's a big if) and be anywhere near his best it will be massive for us.

    Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gray77 View Post
    If we finished 1 and 2 and ended up in a Grand Final who would be massively confident about beating them? We're a better team, but in a one off game anything goes. The odds merely reflect that I would say.
    I'm never confident of beating them, even that game last season when they played their kids.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angry Dave View Post
    We have Gildart+1 back fit.
    Yeah fair point. I'd play them on the same flank for England. Gildart left wing, Percival left centre
    Last edited by Ralph Fridge; 3rd March 2021 at 19:35. Reason: SPG

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Fridge View Post
    Yeah fair point. I'd play them on the same flank for England. Gildart left wing, Percival left centre
    I can go with that.

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    Should be a cracking season. Saints have recruited very well which seems to have gone under the radar in many quarters. Our pack has got even better and Percivil being back will be like a new signing. Don’t know much about field but Bateman is a great signing for Wigan. Never rated their forwards last season(apart from Farrell) but they do a job and play above themselves. Should be a cracking game the first time we meet this season. Bateman v Bentley should be interesting!!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Fridge View Post
    Yeah fair point. I'd play them on the same flank for England. Gildart left wing, Percival left centre
    Give over, in his whole career Gildart has only played on the wing three times and that was to cover injuries. He has actually played more times at right centre, so a more convincing argument imo would be to have Percival and Gildart as centres (however both have had injury problems) with probably Makinson and Handley as wingers. I'd find a place for Tom Davies and Harry Newman in the squad and maybe one of Jake Wardle or Toby King.

    btw I expect that this will be Gildarts last season at Wigan, he has ambitions to play in Aus and two of his best mates Williams and Sutton are over there, but I'm not sure if it'll be Canberra that he goes to.

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    In The South Stand Ralph Fridge's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogues Gallery View Post
    Give over, in his whole career Gildart has only played on the wing three times and that was to cover injuries. He has actually played more times at right centre, so a more convincing argument imo would be to have Percival and Gildart as centres (however both have had injury problems) with probably Makinson and Handley as wingers. I'd find a place for Tom Davies and Harry Newman in the squad and maybe one of Jake Wardle or Toby King.

    btw I expect that this will be Gildarts last season at Wigan, he has ambitions to play in Aus and two of his best mates Williams and Sutton are over there, but I'm not sure if it'll be Canberra that he goes to.
    So why can't he play on the wing for England? He's fast, agile & defensively sound. He's a better option there than Ash Handley , for certain.

    The aussie three quarters switch from centre to wing. Inglis has, Gagai does, Mat Rogers did.

    Meli switched from wing to centre effectively for us in 2011.

    Percival and Gildart are quality left sided backs. Gildart is faster so stick him outside Percival. They're competent enough to work together. Ash Handley would get eaten alive by their right edge.

    It really isn't as a ridiculous idea as you seem to think. Gildart was garbage when he played right centre for England a few years back. And yes, Percival didn't perform either when he got a chance. On the left, they are both potent attackers and will do a job.

    Gildart played on the wing a few years back against Saints and ruined us.

    King would be in at right centre for me.

    Tomkins/Hardaker

    Makinson
    King
    Percival
    Gildart

    Williams
    Gale

    (Lomax on the bench to cover 1 or 6)

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