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  1. #176
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    Quote Originally Posted by DD View Post
    The death rate per infection figures are absurdly inaccurate.

    I don't know where you get 0.02% from, but that suggests that 1 in 5,000 people die from Covid. I think we have had 20,000 deaths in the second wave or there or thereabouts. That would therefore mean that 100 million people in the UK have had Covid this winter, which out of a population of 65 million, is pretty impressive. It would of course provide a spectacular herd immunity, but my fear is that your figures are completely wrong. :-)

    The 3.5% death rate was also completely wrong, as the chances are that only a very small percentage of tests were being conducted, so the vast majority of cases would have gone undetected.

    The smart money for overall death rate is probably about 0.5 to 1%, but this isn't a flat rate and therefore cannot be treated as such. Whilst the chances of death for children might be 0.02% and the chances for under 40s probably less than 0.1%, when we get to the 70s, it's about 5% and in some sub-groups as high as 15%.

    There will come a point soon when we need to just get on with life, but now is not that time. I would suggest this summer is. If we discarded lockdown now, by February and March, the death figures could hit 3 or 4,000 per day, and then you can add on to that death figure everybody else who has a health emergency, because they simply will not be able to be receive treatment.

    This policy worked last year very well and drove cases down to minimal levels by the summer. It won't be that easy this time because of the new more transmittable variant, but without lockdown, the cases would sky rocket to a level that would simply break the NHS. This cannot be allowed to happen.

    The NHS may be underfunded, but as somebody who works for NHS Trusts as both a cost and, on occasion, project manager, I can assure you that the amount of money that the NHS waste is extra-ordinary, and if those at the top of the NHS tree were a bit more savvy with their allocation of their funds, half the problems wouldn't exist. When each Trust is given an amount to spend each year, and they only get the next year what they spent the previous one, then it's a system that is rife for the picking. The Trusts simply spend what they don't need to, to get the same again next year, to waste again. They are all for themselves.
    You are spot on DD my typo, that should have read 0.2%.
    When it hit hard in March it was estimated that the death rate was 10-15% the first 1 million deaths occurred just at 10 million confirmed infections, since then over 80 million confirmed infections with less than 1 million deaths 1.25%, present EU average is 0.23%, highlighting the anomalies in the estimates. The lockdowns were then touted to prevent the health services being overrun this has been the party line since. Over here in Ireland the infection rate is the highest in the world at the moment an average of 5500 and 10 deaths per day 0.18% this last week, with excess deaths for the time of year at an all time low, despite an increase in population.
    One death is one too many but the peaks and troughs of lockdowns are not working.
    I stated that the NHS has been mismanaged for years and whilst not underfunded then perhaps wrongly funded.

  2. #177
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tallaght Tiger View Post
    You are spot on DD my typo, that should have read 0.2%.
    When it hit hard in March it was estimated that the death rate was 10-15% the first 1 million deaths occurred just at 10 million confirmed infections, since then over 80 million confirmed infections with less than 1 million deaths 1.25%, present EU average is 0.23%, highlighting the anomalies in the estimates. The lockdowns were then touted to prevent the health services being overrun this has been the party line since. Over here in Ireland the infection rate is the highest in the world at the moment an average of 5500 and 10 deaths per day 0.18% this last week, with excess deaths for the time of year at an all time low, despite an increase in population.
    One death is one too many but the peaks and troughs of lockdowns are not working.
    I stated that the NHS has been mismanaged for years and whilst not underfunded then perhaps wrongly funded.
    You are spot on re: NHS being mismanaged . Nursing agency's are paid criminal amounts . I know someone who gets a huge amount per hour for a 12 hour night shift & admits to sleeping some of the shift.

  3. #178
    In The North Stand With All The Old Folk paulscnthorpe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fonsboy View Post
    You are spot on re: NHS being mismanaged . Nursing agency's are paid criminal amounts . I know someone who gets a huge amount per hour for a 12 hour night shift & admits to sleeping some of the shift.
    Public sector are terrible at purchasing, look at today's farce over the £30 food parcels, that are worth about a fiver, someone is pocketing the difference.. I had a discussion with a mate in the private sector, he was telling me about their website and how it was costing £100 a month, he went into his boss' offer and said he could do it for about a tenner, and it was done.. the public sector would pencil in a few meetings, have costing studies and analysis, before putting the contract out to tender, and they'd still pay too much.. they're also terrified that the contract will be given to someone's cousin's next door neighbour, and it be seen as a back hander..

    As for the last few points, we're in an absolute mess, but I think most are willing to ride it out a couple of months, however once the most vulnerable are safe by early March hopefully - not to mention the millions who have recovered from the virus, I think massive restrictions will be difficult for most to stomach..

  4. #179
    In The South Stand Angry Dave's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by fonsboy View Post
    You are spot on re: NHS being mismanaged . Nursing agency's are paid criminal amounts . I know someone who gets a huge amount per hour for a 12 hour night shift & admits to sleeping some of the shift.
    Sounds like nightshift offshore.

    Not that I'm trying to make light of the situation, but people will always try and take advantage of any situation. I agree though, the NHS is grossly mismanaged.

  5. #180
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    Quote Originally Posted by Angry Dave View Post
    Sounds like nightshift offshore.

    Not that I'm trying to make light of the situation, but people will always try and take advantage of any situation. I agree though, the NHS is grossly mismanaged.
    Hmmm

  6. #181
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rogues Gallery View Post
    Hmmm
    Or every shift for you lot. "Where's the tiffy's office pal?" "Tea shack or TV room".

  7. #182
    Got A Season Ticket Roger Moore's Avatar
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    Hey Wigan are great at saving money. They don't even pay the correct minimum wage.
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  8. #183
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    Quote Originally Posted by Roger Moore View Post
    Hey Wigan are great at saving money. They don't even pay the correct minimum wage.
    We were named and shamed for the same thing not so long back.

  9. #184
    In The North Stand With All The Old Folk DD's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tallaght Tiger View Post
    You are spot on DD my typo, that should have read 0.2%.
    When it hit hard in March it was estimated that the death rate was 10-15% the first 1 million deaths occurred just at 10 million confirmed infections, since then over 80 million confirmed infections with less than 1 million deaths 1.25%, present EU average is 0.23%, highlighting the anomalies in the estimates. The lockdowns were then touted to prevent the health services being overrun this has been the party line since. Over here in Ireland the infection rate is the highest in the world at the moment an average of 5500 and 10 deaths per day 0.18% this last week, with excess deaths for the time of year at an all time low, despite an increase in population.
    One death is one too many but the peaks and troughs of lockdowns are not working.
    I stated that the NHS has been mismanaged for years and whilst not underfunded then perhaps wrongly funded.
    Whichever way we look at it, deaths are 85,000 up in the UK this year. Given that just under 1% of the population crokes it per annum, then we would have needed a population increase of 8 million to justify that

    The ICU capacity at most hospitals has doubled over the last nine months and they are still at 90% capacity. This could feasibly be a low figure compared to the next few weeks. Had we had no lockdown this time, we would have potentially killed tens of thousands of other people, including many non-Covid patients, who simply wouldn't be able to get treatment. That can never be an acceptable scenario, especially when many of those who would ultimately die would have been just weeks short of their vaccine.
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