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Thread: Lockdown

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    Quote Originally Posted by WalkieTalkie View Post
    When would you expect the circa 50 daily Covid deaths that are pretty flat to approach anywhere near the 500 daily cancer or 500 daily CHD deaths that already continue to take place where the sufferers in many cases have had their clinical support curtailed? Covid deaths, which is the important metric are relatively low, 24th in fact a few days ago. BTW suicides are increasing, can't think why.

    Is there a virus yes, is it affecting people yes, are the control measures causing more harm than the actual virus yes.


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    Your last sentence is not true, as this article in the BMJ shows: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3348. In the first wave there were ~60k excess deaths, the majority directly caused by C19; since week 25 we’ve been slightly below or at the 2015-19 mean but we are now above that mean again, and on a rising trend, the reason being directly and unequivocally C19.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Simeon Stylites View Post
    South Korea, population 51 million, 432 deaths.
    Japan has about 2000 deaths out of a population of 125m, they had no lockdown as such, and limited testing (https://www.theweek.co.uk/coronaviru...avirus-outlier)

    There is a thinking that Eastern Asia has some kind of immunity either down to SARS or similar illnesses in their ancestry.. in reality they don't know

    I'm not saying the UK has managed it well, but there are some huge statistical anomalies

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angry Dave View Post
    Why can't you close education? They're happy enough to close everything else when it suits only the difference being, that when someone's livelihood is destroyed, it's generally very difficult to recover, once we have some kind of vaccine in place, then get the kids back to school and if it takes them and extra year or 2 then hard luck, we've all made sacrifices. I know that may sound cynical but the correlation is clear, and that's what I was getting at earlier about the truth being told. And before anyone states the obvious I'm well aware there's problems to overcome with childcare etc if schools were closed.
    That is a very good point in respect to university education, that section of society between the 18 to 25 year olds are spreading the virus like wild fire, they don't contribute to the real economy and indirectly will be causing mass unemployment, shut them down.

    Also sick of these Teflon Coated Mayors who find it easy meat to Blame everything at national level. Yes, give them total control at local level, don't think Andy Burnham would last 5 mins if he can't pass the buck towards BoJo.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostik Bailey View Post
    The original. Post was right. The reason behind the change in advice is that when you see everyone wearing masks it subconsciously make you modify your behaviour. Mask for shopping, etc are basically a big red flag to tell people we aren't over this yet.
    There's some truth in this rather than the effectiveness of the actual masks.


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    Quote Originally Posted by RJM25R View Post
    Agreed. I’m worried there’s social unrest on the way........

    On an aside, there’s a cancer (among other illnesses) timebomb waiting to go off and it will make COVID look like a stubbed toe......
    Most certainly, while GP's have in effect gone awol.


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    Quote Originally Posted by STIDDY View Post
    That is a very good point in respect to university education, that section of society between the 18 to 25 year olds are spreading the virus like wild fire, they don't contribute to the real economy and indirectly will be causing mass unemployment, shut them down.

    Also sick of these Teflon Coated Mayors who find it easy meat to Blame everything at national level. Yes, give them total control at local level, don't think Andy Burnham would last 5 mins if he can't pass the buck towards BoJo.
    Exactly, that age group don't contribute a great deal so make that their contribution. And that w**ksock Burnham is nothing more than a whining mouthpiece.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Simeon Stylites View Post
    Your last sentence is not true, as this article in the BMJ shows: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3348. In the first wave there were ~60k excess deaths, the majority directly caused by C19; since week 25 we’ve been slightly below or at the 2015-19 mean but we are now above that mean again, and on a rising trend, the reason being directly and unequivocally C19.
    At quote from that article is being touched on by a few on here:

    Overall, the UK’s record on mortality thus far compares badly with other European countries. The lessons of the first wave of covid-19 must be learnt and should inform policy decisions for tackling any resurgence. While controlling the pandemic is clearly a priority, it’s also imperative to take the long view as many of the risk factors for dying from covid-19—such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, obesity, and deprivation—are also leading contributors to the lack lustre mortality improvements and widening inequalities prevailing in the UK before the pandemic.

    The next stage need to have more balance but unfortunately it most likely be another full lockdown and the results will be the same, the pure definition of insanity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Simeon Stylites View Post
    Your last sentence is not true, as this article in the BMJ shows: https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3348. In the first wave there were ~60k excess deaths, the majority directly caused by C19; since week 25 we’ve been slightly below or at the 2015-19 mean but we are now above that mean again, and on a rising trend, the reason being directly and unequivocally C19.
    I don't want to persist with this to be honest. It depends at what level you want the debate. For instance how many of your total death you present were attributed to Covid and in fact had no link whatsoever. I seen some analysis that considered a direct link to Covid and when the quoted deaths had reached circa 42k the directly attributable deaths were 1200, yes 1200 total. You don't mention the policy of attributing thousands and thousands of deaths to Covid when the patient was very old and very frail and was already at end of life. They called these Covid. I know 2 people personally where relatives of theirs were given cause of death Covid and they both appealed (separately) as it was clearly wrong and they were told its policy. Car crash victims attributed to Covid as they had a positive test within the last 28 days. It's a disgrace and a sham designed to frighten the population into doing as we're told. We need to get the country back to work and pay the bills as nothing in this life is free. While you have sent me a link perhaps you might read about Action 21, Edition 201 & Lockstep and how the inventor of the test being used for Covid specifically stated it should not be used for live viral testing yet that's exactly what they're using it for. He 'died' in October 2019, strange that. I'm leaving it there now.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostik Bailey View Post
    At quote from that article is being touched on by a few on here:

    Overall, the UK’s record on mortality thus far compares badly with other European countries. The lessons of the first wave of covid-19 must be learnt and should inform policy decisions for tackling any resurgence. While controlling the pandemic is clearly a priority, it’s also imperative to take the long view as many of the risk factors for dying from covid-19—such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, obesity, and deprivation—are also leading contributors to the lack lustre mortality improvements and widening inequalities prevailing in the UK before the pandemic.

    The next stage need to have more balance but unfortunately it most likely be another full lockdown and the results will be the same, the pure definition of insanity.
    Yes, absolutely - the poor, the sick and the old are suffering most, making an existing situation worse. We should experience a lower proportion of deaths in this second wave (better treatments, some of the more vulnerable have already dies), but only if control measures are in place and we play our part in observing them, whatever they turn out to be.

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    Quote Originally Posted by STIDDY View Post
    That is a very good point in respect to university education, that section of society between the 18 to 25 year olds are spreading the virus like wild fire, they don't contribute to the real economy and indirectly will be causing mass unemployment, shut them down.

    Also sick of these Teflon Coated Mayors who find it easy meat to Blame everything at national level. Yes, give them total control at local level, don't think Andy Burnham would last 5 mins if he can't pass the buck towards BoJo.
    Do students not buy food, pay rent etc? Do they not take jobs while studying? Or are you saying these are not part of the real economy?

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    Quote Originally Posted by paulscnthorpe View Post
    Japan has about 2000 deaths out of a population of 125m, they had no lockdown as such, and limited testing (https://www.theweek.co.uk/coronaviru...avirus-outlier)

    There is a thinking that Eastern Asia has some kind of immunity either down to SARS or similar illnesses in their ancestry.. in reality they don't know

    I'm not saying the UK has managed it well, but there are some huge statistical anomalies

    Yes, Japan is an interesting case, which we would do well to take note of in our own approaches to the virus.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Simeon Stylites View Post
    Do students not buy food, pay rent etc? Do they not take jobs while studying? Or are you saying these are not part of the real economy?
    They would buy food and pay rent whether they are a student or not, taking jobs whilst studying is worse for 7 to 14 days they could be super spreaders working in hospitality which maybe weak on health regulation. If this virus continues for a few more years I can see higher education going transitional to digital tutors with very little social interaction, its only at primary/junior school level that we must give priority for obvious reasons.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Simeon Stylites View Post
    Yes, Japan is an interesting case, which we would do well to take note of in our own approaches to the virus.
    In Japan the population does as it is told. I don't think there is much chance of most of the UK youth following recommendations/rules.

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    Quote Originally Posted by WalkieTalkie View Post
    I don't want to persist with this to be honest. It depends at what level you want the debate. For instance how many of your total death you present were attributed to Covid and in fact had no link whatsoever. I seen some analysis that considered a direct link to Covid and when the quoted deaths had reached circa 42k the directly attributable deaths were 1200, yes 1200 total. You don't mention the policy of attributing thousands and thousands of deaths to Covid when the patient was very old and very frail and was already at end of life. They called these Covid. I know 2 people personally where relatives of theirs were given cause of death Covid and they both appealed (separately) as it was clearly wrong and they were told its policy. Car crash victims attributed to Covid as they had a positive test within the last 28 days. It's a disgrace and a sham designed to frighten the population into doing as we're told. We need to get the country back to work and pay the bills as nothing in this life is free. While you have sent me a link perhaps you might read about Action 21, Edition 201 & Lockstep and how the inventor of the test being used for Covid specifically stated it should not be used for live viral testing yet that's exactly what they're using it for. He 'died' in October 2019, strange that. I'm leaving it there now.


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    Ok, but thanks for the references and the exchanges, which I’ve enjoyed.

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    It's on the BBc now that covid can live for 28 days on surfaces such as stainless steel glass Mobile phone screens etc. That could explain some of the contamination.

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    https://mobile.twitter.com/MetroMayo...435329/photo/1

    With the 14 day'ish lag, from catching to being admitted, the hospital ICU's are going to be struggling big time. Stay safe, follow the current, upto date, advice.

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    I can't understand why shielding hasn't been reintroduced, absolutely illogical.
    I now have a daughter who was shielding during the initial lockdown and classed as highly vulnerable now having been tested positive...... as she's classed as a key worker working for an incompetent employer - St Helens Council - she's been placed in dangerous situations which have now led to this.
    "The great fallacy is that the game is first and last about winning. It is nothing of the kind. The game is about glory, it is about doing things in style and with a flourish, about going out and beating the other lot, not waiting for them to die of boredom." Danny Blanchflower.
    Might have been written by a footballer about football - but never a truer word............

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    Quote Originally Posted by warringtonsaint View Post
    I can't understand why shielding hasn't been reintroduced, absolutely illogical.
    I now have a daughter who was shielding during the initial lockdown and classed as highly vulnerable now having been tested positive...... as she's classed as a key worker working for an incompetent employer - St Helens Council - she's been placed in dangerous situations which have now led to this.
    I understand your frustration, it has been rumoured that there is to be an announcement on shielding to correspond with the next Lockdowns.
    But like I said, it's rumoured?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Simeon Stylites View Post
    Ok, but thanks for the references and the exchanges, which I’ve enjoyed.
    Yes I enjoyed the jousting with your well presented points, respect


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    Quote Originally Posted by paulscnthorpe View Post
    Japan has about 2000 deaths out of a population of 125m, they had no lockdown as such, and limited testing (https://www.theweek.co.uk/coronaviru...avirus-outlier)

    There is a thinking that Eastern Asia has some kind of immunity either down to SARS or similar illnesses in their ancestry.. in reality they don't know

    I'm not saying the UK has managed it well, but there are some huge statistical anomalies
    The two crucial differences between the UK and South Korea or Japan (can even throw Germany in there) are:

    1. The cultures there are far more community based, with people much more attuned to the interests of everyone, not just themselves. When it's explained to them that restrictions are for the good of society as a whole, you just don't get the "I'm big and hard, me, I'm not wearing no mask or keeping social distances" bellendery that you get in the UK. You don't get paranoid idiots burning 5G masts or organising protests against having to wear a mask for half an hour when they do a bit of shopping. And you don't have the level of sad barflies getting p*ssed in drinking-pubs and ignoring the restrictions.

    2. After their experience with SARS, they designed protocols for not just restrictions but an effective track and trace programme. This was implemented efficiently - and enforced properly and strictly. They had adequate numbers of track and trace workers deployed and a working app that you had to use and show to gain access to a whole range of shops, offices, public buildings, etc. And again, a population that doesn't have a substantial proportion whose first reaction to such restrictions isn't "they can sod off if they think I'm doing that"

    This government instead gave out £multi-million contracts to companies and people with links to the Tory party - big donators, companies with Tories on the board of directors, relatives of Tory MPs, etc. Almost all of these have proved utterly incompetent, from the original app to the outsourced track and trace (still badged 'NHS' so they get the blame).

    This government has refused to target and publicly vilify Covidiots who refuse to comply for the good of everyone. Probably because these are the sort who have backed Brexit and voted for Bozo and his hard-right nationalist government.

    And this government refused early on to close borders to all except returning residents, refused to impose proper quarantine for new arrivals. They still have flights arriving from infection hotspot sh*tholes like Pakistan, India, Bangladesh with barely any quarantine enforcement.
    I f*cking hate wi*an. And rugby yawnion. And Tories. And Brexit f*ckwits.

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    Looks like Merseyside will be shut down on Monday, the only area in England, now please tell me that this isn’t Political since Greater Manchester has the same level of cases ( but a few tory MPs) and please explain why lumping us with Liverpool is of a benefit to St Helens.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Simeon Stylites View Post
    Ok, but thanks for the references and the exchanges, which I’ve enjoyed.
    You're quite right.. it's nice to have the discussion, not everyone is either a 'NHS can do no wrong' and let's shut everything forever, vs Anti-vaxxers who don't believe in face masks, and get everything open

    Most people are in the grey

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    Quote Originally Posted by WalkieTalkie View Post
    I don't want to persist with this to be honest. It depends at what level you want the debate. For instance how many of your total death you present were attributed to Covid and in fact had no link whatsoever. I seen some analysis that considered a direct link to Covid and when the quoted deaths had reached circa 42k the directly attributable deaths were 1200, yes 1200 total. You don't mention the policy of attributing thousands and thousands of deaths to Covid when the patient was very old and very frail and was already at end of life. They called these Covid. I know 2 people personally where relatives of theirs were given cause of death Covid and they both appealed (separately) as it was clearly wrong and they were told its policy. Car crash victims attributed to Covid as they had a positive test within the last 28 days. It's a disgrace and a sham designed to frighten the population into doing as we're told. We need to get the country back to work and pay the bills as nothing in this life is free. While you have sent me a link perhaps you might read about Action 21, Edition 201 & Lockstep and how the inventor of the test being used for Covid specifically stated it should not be used for live viral testing yet that's exactly what they're using it for. He 'died' in October 2019, strange that. I'm leaving it there now.


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    You're talking out of your arse.
    I f*cking hate wi*an. And rugby yawnion. And Tories. And Brexit f*ckwits.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostik Bailey View Post
    Looks like Merseyside will be shut down on Monday, the only area in England, now please tell me that this isn’t Political since Greater Manchester has the same level of cases ( but a few tory MPs) and please explain why lumping us with Liverpool is of a benefit to St Helens.
    I stand to be corrected but didn't the council vote to become part of an enlarged Merseyside entity a few years ago, six separate boroughs all agreeing to be an enlarged political group with a Merseyside mayor in charge. Were the local electorate given a vote to confirm this, I honestly can't remember, but If we did, I know what I would have voted! As a result of our local council kowtowing to Liverpool, it looks like we may be in lockdown for six months. This isn't a party political moan, it's just that I would like to remain a woolyback not a scouser
    Last edited by Woolyback; 11th October 2020 at 22:54.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostik Bailey View Post
    Looks like Merseyside will be shut down on Monday, the only area in England, now please tell me that this isn’t Political since Greater Manchester has the same level of cases ( but a few tory MPs) and please explain why lumping us with Liverpool is of a benefit to St Helens.
    Spot on wish someone could explain why we are in the Liverpool city region

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