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Thread: Lockdown

  1. #451
    In The South Stand Jackbit's Avatar
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    Just appreciate that this Lockdown and the increasing death count are British people who two weeks ago where around us and their families.

    These are not statistically placed on the big stats ••••ing board these are our people.

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    I have to laugh. Jonathan Van Tam, the Royal Family & others all now on the band wagon stating they will hang back having the vaccine until everyone else has had it. They don't want to queue jump.

    What they actually mean is they might have it down the line after it's had some further real live testing on the plebs first.

    Dr Clare Craig FRCPath has produced a report stating that up to the end of October, of the 50k deaths with Covid, less than 1500 have died with no co-morbidity meaning Covid has directly caused less than 1500 deaths & she has also written a report claiming there are no excess deaths above the 5-year projected norm. Interesting stuff if you have a questioning mind on this stuff.

    My stance is "Vaccines should be given to politicians first, if they survive the vaccine is safe, if they die the country is safe".


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  3. #453
    In The South Stand Jackbit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WalkieTalkie View Post
    I have to laugh. Jonathan Van Tam, the Royal Family & others all now on the band wagon stating they will hang back having the vaccine until everyone else has had it. They don't want to queue jump.

    What they actually mean is they might have it down the line after it's had some further real live testing on the plebs first.

    Dr Clare Craig FRCPath has produced a report stating that up to the end of October, of the 50k deaths with Covid, less than 1500 have died with no co-morbidity meaning Covid has directly caused less than 1500 deaths & she has also written a report claiming there are no excess deaths above the 5-year projected norm. Interesting stuff if you have a questioning mind on this stuff.

    My stance is "Vaccines should be given to politicians first, if they survive the vaccine is safe, if they die the country is safe".


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    You are just a tit. You just carry on hanging on to the ice, but you will fall. Your thoughts of a non existent 2nd wave have been blown out the water. Don't try to Un-Science the Science on this site. We live in St Helens we support our NHS.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jackbit View Post
    You are just a tit. You just carry on hanging on to the ice, but you will fall. Your thoughts of a non existent 2nd wave have been blown out the water. Don't try to Un-Science the Science on this site. We live in St Helens we support our NHS.
    Thanks for the detailed analysis & contribution. Strange how you seem like someone who wears their anti-establishment badge with a sort of misguided pride then you support the establishment when it suits. Strange position to take. Have an extra vaccine if you want, you can have mine.


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  5. #455
    In The South Stand Jackbit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by WalkieTalkie View Post
    Thanks for the detailed analysis & contribution. Strange how you seem like someone who wears their anti-establishment badge with a sort of misguided pride then you support the establishment when it suits. Strange position to take. Have an extra vaccine if you want, you can have mine.


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    I've been fighting against your type for a lot longer than I may wish to count. But it's great to undo the envelope sometimes. Your values are, like I said, holding onto the ice berg. It will not be long before the ideology is debunked and the world will get on with life as it should.

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    Let’s face the main reason that the UK has the highest death toll in Europe (from COVID) is due to the poor underlying health of the nation. This is a direct result of chronic underfunding of the health service so that it doesn’t have the adequate resources for effective preventative measures. Add in the general psyche of the country, no nanny state, I’ll do as I want sod the impact on the rest of society, and you get what we have now.

    How do we solve this - answers on a postcard to 10 Downing Street.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jackbit View Post
    I've been fighting against your type for a lot longer than I may wish to count. But it's great to undo the envelope sometimes. Your values are, like I said, holding onto the ice berg. It will not be long before the ideology is debunked and the world will get on with life as it should.
    The unfortunately issue with this COVID crisis is that it take some intelligence to look beyond the news, for example:

    The COVID test will identify ~80% of COVID cases
    The false positive rate is low at less than 1%

    Now for testing to be accurate we need COVID to be prevalent in the testing population of over ~4%

    So mass testing of radon people will produce a significant level of false positives, the recent Liverpool testing where 21000 tests yielded 150 positives these were in all probability false positives

    However of general population the test is available if you show symptoms and this shows that about 8% of those tested are positive, now these figures mean that there is a 90% probability that these are true.

    It is all using Bayes theorem.

    So you can see the problem, of holding back information so that the message is simple, and not confusing ( unlike this post)

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostik Bailey View Post
    Let’s face the main reason that the UK has the highest death toll in Europe (from COVID) is due to the poor underlying health of the nation. This is a direct result of chronic underfunding of the health service so that it doesn’t have the adequate resources for effective preventative measures. Add in the general psyche of the country, no nanny state, I’ll do as I want sod the impact on the rest of society, and you get what we have now.

    How do we solve this - answers on a postcard to 10 Downing Street.
    You can probably add density population and social freedoms to that as well, opening up the colleges and universities that increased the R value and the general public complacency effect also. BoJo the juggler is struggling to keep those balls in the air trying to contain the virus and drip feeding the economy to keep us ticking over.

    Social media doesn't help, everyone pulling in different directions even the medical science so called rxperts are all saying different things and not working as a collective which is "gold dust" for the daily journals.

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    Learning All The Songs KentishBarry's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by STIDDY View Post
    You can probably add...
    ...Baby boomers all in their 60's and 70's now.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostik Bailey View Post
    Let’s face the main reason that the UK has the highest death toll in Europe (from COVID) is due to the poor underlying health of the nation. This is a direct result of chronic underfunding of the health service so that it doesn’t have the adequate resources for effective preventative measures. Add in the general psyche of the country, no nanny state, I’ll do as I want sod the impact on the rest of society, and you get what we have now.

    How do we solve this - answers on a postcard to 10 Downing Street.
    An annual health & social care budget of £133 billion equating to around £364 million per day is some budget. Granted the fiasco of PFI implemented by Blair is a mortgage they'll still be paying seemingly for a long time yet.

    I believe the NHS is the largest employer in Europe and 5th largest globally. How big should it be and how much money should we give it?


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    Quote Originally Posted by WalkieTalkie View Post
    An annual health & social care budget of £133 billion equating to around £364 million per day is some budget. Granted the fiasco of PFI implemented by Blair is a mortgage they'll still be paying seemingly for a long time yet.

    I believe the NHS is the largest employer in Europe and 5th largest globally. How big should it be and how much money should we give it?


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    What point are you trying to make the figures you quote are the department budget, i.e salaries, medicines etc do you think that people shouldn’t get paid.

    How much money should we give it, well what is the economic cost of Covid? We don’t give money to the NHS we invest in the health and well-being of the population, that in turn drives the economy.

    Indeed this government has put a lot more money into the NHS but funding for public health and education has not been determined beyond next year. It’s not just this government it is a legacy that is decades old.

    Next time you google a figure read the text that follows it and you will get a better appraisal of what they actually mean.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostik Bailey View Post
    What point are you trying to make the figures you quote are the department budget, i.e salaries, medicines etc do you think that people shouldn’t get paid.

    How much money should we give it, well what is the economic cost of Covid? We don’t give money to the NHS we invest in the health and well-being of the population, that in turn drives the economy.

    Indeed this government has put a lot more money into the NHS but funding for public health and education has not been determined beyond next year. It’s not just this government it is a legacy that is decades old.

    Next time you google a figure read the text that follows it and you will get a better appraisal of what they actually mean.
    Correction it's £139 billion plus about £9 billion in capital.

    I suppose fundamentally it comes down to what we each believe in. I believe it not fit for purpose, a burgeoning monolith of a top weighted organisation too big to change with ideas entrenched in the past. We might agree that it's outcomes in measuring our health are amongst the worst in Europe. If it's outcomes are generally considered as worse than Germany, France, Spain, Scandinavia, Switzerland, Austria, Belgium, Holland............why would we want to put more into it and make it even bigger and so in my mind less effective. They can't manage what they're trying to do now. I know there are different funding models. I also know that many NHS staff managing it as their own treating people not entitled, again another spin off story, but it reflects entrenched behaviours.

    Of course we can argue on a range of issues & stats but it comes down to our beliefs. Health budgets were set before Covid went public but again that's a whole different conversation. In treating Covid it has ceased to treat Cancer, CVD and other illnesses. Flu when considered against the 10 year historic data is significantly down for this time of year. Covid couldn't be covering for Flu could it? It has chosen to basically hibernate GP & Dental services, why have we had 26m fewer GP appointments this year compared to last year? Are we all miraculously healthier? An awful lot of money has been invested in Covid and is still being pumped in when a tiny fraction are dying, I believe no more than any other year anyway, the basic question stands, what overall investment in the nations health is enough before we change something.


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    Quote Originally Posted by WalkieTalkie View Post
    An annual health & social care budget of £133 billion equating to around £364 million per day is some budget. Granted the fiasco of PFI implemented by Blair is a mortgage they'll still be paying seemingly for a long time yet.

    I believe the NHS is the largest employer in Europe and 5th largest globally. How big should it be and how much money should we give it?


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    The problem was that it came top heavy with Project Managers and a large chunk of funding went to them instead of salaries to the Doctors and Nurses. I think it was Andy Burnham who modified the Procurement process and we ended up getting ripped off by the suppliers, those £1.50 box of Aspirins suddenly marked up to a price of say £10.00 for example because of OTT regulation and bureaucracy. We had the same thing in the Ministry of defence that £4.00 isolation domestic type water valve for some of our naval ships became costing around £30.00.

  14. #464
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    Quote Originally Posted by STIDDY View Post
    The problem was that it came top heavy with Project Managers and a large chunk of funding went to them instead of salaries to the Doctors and Nurses. I think it was Andy Burnham who modified the Procurement process and we ended up getting ripped off by the suppliers, those £1.50 box of Aspirins suddenly marked up to a price of say £10.00 for example because of OTT regulation and bureaucracy. We had the same thing in the Ministry of defence that £4.00 isolation domestic type water valve for some of our naval ships became costing around £30.00.
    Totally agree - it's not just a case of how much money is invested, it's also very much a case of how it's spent.
    From a layman's perspective, and I'm more than happy to be corrected on this, the amount of admin staff / business consultants etc seems to have exploded over the past twenty years or so.
    I've spent many hours in hospital with our eldest daughter over the years - she's 31 now, and to my simple observations, the balance between admin and medical staff seems to have narrowed considerably in that time.
    "The great fallacy is that the game is first and last about winning. It is nothing of the kind. The game is about glory, it is about doing things in style and with a flourish, about going out and beating the other lot, not waiting for them to die of boredom." Danny Blanchflower.
    Might have been written by a footballer about football - but never a truer word............

  15. #465
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    Quote Originally Posted by STIDDY View Post
    The problem was that it came top heavy with Project Managers and a large chunk of funding went to them instead of salaries to the Doctors and Nurses. I think it was Andy Burnham who modified the Procurement process and we ended up getting ripped off by the suppliers, those £1.50 box of Aspirins suddenly marked up to a price of say £10.00 for example because of OTT regulation and bureaucracy. We had the same thing in the Ministry of defence that £4.00 isolation domestic type water valve for some of our naval ships became costing around £30.00.
    Agreed Andy Burnham has some history in this regard.

    I've similar experience having been a member of 3 separate RAF fighter squadrons. Of course there is eye wateringly expensive technology in place which is difficult to challenge but the most mundane screw, rivet or terminal pin could easily hit £50 each. Trouble is they're supplied through single point sourcing, fantastic if you own that contract as you can basically charge what you like. Some parity with your NHS examples I hope.

  16. #466
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    Quote Originally Posted by WalkieTalkie View Post
    Agreed Andy Burnham has some history in this regard.

    I've similar experience having been a member of 3 separate RAF fighter squadrons. Of course there is eye wateringly expensive technology in place which is difficult to challenge but the most mundane screw, rivet or terminal pin could easily hit £50 each. Trouble is they're supplied through single point sourcing, fantastic if you own that contract as you can basically charge what you like. Some parity with your NHS examples I hope.
    That's true enough, I've seen it first hand both in the military as a contractor and then oil & gas, something that's always ••••ed me off when you've been on the coal face.

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    There are now 4.35 million people on the NHS waiting list for routine surgery or minor procedures of which 140k have waited for over a year. For sure we're collectively paying a heavy price with all of this.

    A report suggests there have been circa 48500 'with' Covid deaths all identified with a co-morbidity while there are circa 1500 'of' deaths identified solely as Covid due to no identification of a co-morbidity. Numbers stem from a piece of work identified by the Dr of Pathology I mentioned up the thread & supported by others........& believed by myself. Make your own shout on it.


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    Peter Sutcliffe The Yorkshire Ripper has died with Covid, seems it's not an overall bad thing after all.


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