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Just to add some perspective but obviously unverified over a period of 2 months apparently
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I'm one of the 70s or quite close wallers , unfortunately for myself as mentioned a few months ago I had Myeloma which is top of the scale for deaths , and yes I did say and was happy to mention that the illness had left me , not cured because this type of cancer cannot be cured , and here we go check up with consultant and bad news I'm back in the early stages , not quite back on the chemo yet that happens in 6 weeks . Back to you passing time by going out in the car and doing what you enjoy is very similar to myself , my wife and daughter have had to move away for a few months main reason my daughter is a Nurse and is right in the firing line , and to be honest it's really hard how to spend my time , what do I do as I can only travel alone fill my tank up with petrol at ASDA first thing in the morning, back to the house , lunch , early evening meal , then early evening jump in the car and visit where I've had some great times , just come back from Castleford = yes where we didn't do quite well on Sunday, t'morra Barrow a place I loved to go especially after watching Arkie put Eddie Shzmala on his @£$e , give the lad his due , he invited us all back to his pub , great night couple of free beers and the food was great , and no I wasn't driving Brian Dooner was a good friend (Neil Holdings uncle) was the unlucky one behind the wheel , great game is Rugby League lol.
roy litherland it's happened i told you it would
I,m looking at the data in our local areas and use an algorithm based on an 100 fold hidden error. At the moment for example St Helens has only 2 cases from an estimate of 180,000 if that had a 100 fold error that would mean there could be 2 x 100 = 200 cases in the area. There could be a point when 50% of the population (90 000) be infected, using the same 100 fold error that would mean only 900 would be reported, that would be the point for isolation concerns.
So at the moment we are at 2 cases which is a long way off to 900 cases, that no of cases is the same number as Japan. The question is would be St Helens be worse than the country of Japan.
Good stuff. I know a little about Japan to use your example. That society couldn’t be further from ours in probably every single way. It’s common practise to wear a mask when they have a common cold let alone threatened by a virus as it’s courteous & sensible to do so. They also respect & obey authority generally without question. They’re very very organised, meaning they can measure, scope out & define objectives then implement them. I think it reasonable to say that almost none of this would apply in St Helens or any other town in UK so therefore we’ll suffer more as a result. We’ve still got coffee shops full of people particularly in London who clearly believe they’re above all of this. I think it’s at best difficult to overlay one countries experience on another including outcomes. That being said I appreciate your analysis.
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A well known local glue sniffer although he has progressed to other solvents over the years shouted to me over the weekend about how s"itty this corona virus is. St Helens that is why you love it. Westfield Street life will be immune from anything including a nuclear attack.
Yes, I only extracted the no of cases from the world data. It was more really about comparison scale, Japan so far has 900 cases from a population of 126 million, the question or perspective is over the similar period would St Helens accrue 900 cases from a population of 180 thousand.
What is alarming is that most countries start off linear then go into exponential, with Italy they hit the exponential curve straight earlier and has not slowed down like China and other counties who are further advanced. As you say Japan is a very disciplined society is this the opposite in Northern Italy its difficult to blame anything specific.
Last edited by STIDDY; 18th March 2020 at 10:16.
I really don’t know how we know how many cases we have. I could have it now but advice is isolate and sit through it with paracetamol. I don’t need to tell anyone. Some people saying they had the same symptoms in November, December but who knows? It’s only those actually tested that gives a true figure, maybe they extrapolate that instead of requiring anyone who has got it to flag up somewhere, somehow. As an aside we let a further 25 illegals in yesterday in boats from the channel & more likely today & tomorrow......so much for our ‘war footing’.
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First of all Roy stay safe.
Brian Dooner, what a character, sadly missed. We went to quite a few of his parties over Christmas as he and Winnie were very good friends with the Allcocks one of whom is my son-in-law. As you can imagine we had some very long discussions over the rugby.
Happy days.
Just out of curiosity which pubs are still open in St.Helens.
I know it's drastic but we need to bring in some type of ration book. Shop rationing won't work because they just visit more stores.