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Thread: Corona virus strikes.

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    In The West Stand Belgian Saint's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saint Colin View Post
    I understand, but if people are sensible and use their heads, their chances of catching this virus will be minimal
    I have posted previously that I am not overly concerned by the Virus, and that more people die from Flu. But I don't think the chance of getting it is minimal, and I wouldn't trivialise it by calling it scaremongering.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Belgian Saint View Post
    I have posted previously that I am not overly concerned by the Virus, and that more people die from Flu. But I don't think the chance of getting it is minimal, and I wouldn't trivialise it by calling it scaremongering.
    But there are sensible precautions people can take to minimise the risk

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    So if we all self-isolate for a few weeks how many people will die because of lack of food, gas/electricity supplies/clean water etc? As someone who is probably in the “high risk” category and with a 95 year old mum, I’d rather adopt a stoic attitude and continue with as normal a life as possible.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tabasco View Post
    So if we all self-isolate for a few weeks how many people will die because of lack of food, gas/electricity supplies/clean water etc? As someone who is probably in the “high risk” category and with a 95 year old mum, I’d rather adopt a stoic attitude and continue with as normal a life as possible.
    Couldn't have put it better myself

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dux View Post
    Indeed. Given that the advice is to stay at home and ride it out if you have related symptoms - rather than going to your GP or local hospital - you would think that the confirmed cases figures are the tip of the iceberg. Thatís what strikes me as being the problem here: we just donít know what weíre dealing with, which is what distinguishes it from flu and other things that keep being compared with it.
    We donít have a cure/vaccine against the common cold. If you take time to read about the governmentís response it makes sense. Even if the cases are 10x the reported that means that there are a hell of a lot of people with very mild symptoms. The way this country is tackling it is to try to protect vulnerable people. Every death is from a vulnerable group, most healthy adults have mild symptoms. If they lock this down now there will no Ďherdí immunity for when it kicks off again.

    This is a disease and there are lots of previous case studies to use to base the correct action on. Up until now the government has not played politics and made decision based on science. ( having said that some moron on the radio this morning was accusing the government of hiding behind the science as if this is somehow a political crisis).

    If you are worried then carry on buying bog role and pasta

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostik Bailey View Post
    We donít have a cure/vaccine against the common cold. If you take time to read about the governmentís response it makes sense. Even if the cases are 10x the reported that means that there are a hell of a lot of people with very mild symptoms. The way this country is tackling it is to try to protect vulnerable people. Every death is from a vulnerable group, most healthy adults have mild symptoms. If they lock this down now there will no Ďherdí immunity for when it kicks off again.

    This is a disease and there are lots of previous case studies to use to base the correct action on. Up until now the government has not played politics and made decision based on science. ( having said that some moron on the radio this morning was accusing the government of hiding behind the science as if this is somehow a political crisis).

    If you are worried then carry on buying bog role and pasta
    Iím not overly worried and am not panic buying anything. Iím just pointing out that the comparison with flu that keeps getting trotted out isnít really like for like.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dux View Post
    I’m not overly worried and am not panic buying anything. I’m just pointing out that the comparison with flu that keeps getting trotted out isn’t really like for like.
    I agree with you about seasonal flu. This is a rather lethal disease for older people so all the actions are to protect them.

    Unfortunately people who clear the shelves of bog roll paracetamol etc, put this group at risk because they have to now shop around to get what they want.

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    Heard a retired professor of virology on the radio this morning who put a different perspective on it for me. His opinion was that the lock down and precautions being taken are spot on, as to give the health services in the EU, apart from the Nordic countries, that are usually at stretching point a chance to help the most affected. He also stated that travel should have been restricted from 2000 onwards as other infectious diseases had become virulent across the world again, one he claimed they thought had been eradicated in late 1980 early 1990, being TB.
    In 2017, 10 million people contracted it of which 1.5 million died, granted they were some of the poorest countries but it shocked me. He also stated Latvia had a dormant rate of one quarter the male population, another shock to me. He said that although we have drugs that can fight it, the results of infection can be debilitating to some who it does not prove fatal with.
    He also maybe "tongue in cheek" stated that he worked on a program that studied the spread of TB from start of WW1 to the end of WW2 one of the findings was that it should have wiped out more people in the high density cities and countries across the world.
    Yet UK, Ireland, Japan and China did not suffer as much as they should have, when asked why, he simply stated tea. Yep black tea has different anti oxidants than fresh fruit that are better at leeching contagions from our bodies., the tannin is also a natural disinfectant.
    I was skeptical but when looked up as far as the researchers can know this is the case.
    On a side note when coming over for the WCC my missus did not put her favourite tea bags in her case as is standard with most Irish people, surprised I asked her why ? Yorkshire Tea has a resounding thumbs up from most over here that is a real compliment to that brand.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostik Bailey View Post
    Italy is locked down and still seeing large daily increases. The government for once are listening to and taking advice from experts, they aren't putting out knee jerk reactions to placate the average moron like Piers Morgan.

    And this from me someone that has absolutely no love for the current government whatsoever, however I will give credit where it is due, and if they continue to hold their nerve we as country will be better off.
    If you listened to the chief scientist yesterday (not Boris the buffoon), the reason for not shutting schools etc stands to reason. The time will come in a fortnight or so, this is based on scientific evidence, at least educated guess..


    As you stay the numbers in Italy are still rocketing, so people will think what's the point the next time they tried to impose it

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tallaght Tiger View Post
    Heard a retired professor of virology on the radio this morning who put a different perspective on it for me. His opinion was that the lock down and precautions being taken are spot on, as to give the health services in the EU, apart from the Nordic countries, that are usually at stretching point a chance to help the most affected. He also stated that travel should have been restricted from 2000 onwards as other infectious diseases had become virulent across the world again, one he claimed they thought had been eradicated in late 1980 early 1990, being TB.
    In 2017, 10 million people contracted it of which 1.5 million died, granted they were some of the poorest countries but it shocked me. He also stated Latvia had a dormant rate of one quarter the male population, another shock to me. He said that although we have drugs that can fight it, the results of infection can be debilitating to some who it does not prove fatal with.
    He also maybe "tongue in cheek" stated that he worked on a program that studied the spread of TB from start of WW1 to the end of WW2 one of the findings was that it should have wiped out more people in the high density cities and countries across the world.
    Yet UK, Ireland, Japan and China did not suffer as much as they should have, when asked why, he simply stated tea. Yep black tea has different anti oxidants than fresh fruit that are better at leeching contagions from our bodies., the tannin is also a natural disinfectant.
    I was skeptical but when looked up as far as the researchers can know this is the case.
    On a side note when coming over for the WCC my missus did not put her favourite tea bags in her case as is standard with most Irish people, surprised I asked her why ? Yorkshire Tea has a resounding thumbs up from most over here that is a real compliment to that brand.
    Barry's is better than yorkshire tea and that takes some doing. I've also been advised to keep your vitamins and protein levels up and I don't mean drinking a load of protein shakes, just eat right, take multivitamins and look after yourself. I must admit, had 5 pints of Guinness watching the racing and I could've murdered a Chinese but decided it probably wasn't the best idea I'd ever had.

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    Quote Originally Posted by paulscnthorpe View Post
    If you listened to the chief scientist yesterday (not Boris the buffoon), the reason for not shutting schools etc stands to reason. The time will come in a fortnight or so, this is based on scientific evidence, at least educated guess..


    As you stay the numbers in Italy are still rocketing, so people will think what's the point the next time they tried to impose it
    I am getting the impression that having complete buffoons in the cabinet in times like these is a good thing. They are not able to counter argue the science, yes there will be different scientific opinions, but these scientists do not hold these opinions as political points of view and they will agree on a consensus to move forward, even if their view are not entirely the same

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    Could the continental greeting be a factor in some other countries? The face kissing thing is still popular in some places.

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    Quote Originally Posted by brook View Post
    Could the continental greeting be a factor in some other countries? The face kissing thing is still popular in some places.
    I read a statistic that only 57% of Italians (this is from 2015 so no bias https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ind...711.html%3famp) admit to washing their hands after going the toilet..

    If you don't wash after the toilet, when do you wash? Spain and France aren't much better at 60%

    Clearly there are others factors however Portugal has less that 100 cases (10m population) vs Spain 17000 cases (46 million)

    I'm sure there'll be some anomalies, but basic hygiene seems to be lacking in some Mediterranean countries

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    Quote Originally Posted by paulscnthorpe View Post
    I read a statistic that only 57% of Italians (this is from 2015 so no bias https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ind...711.html%3famp) admit to washing their hands after going the toilet..

    If you don't wash after the toilet, when do you wash? Spain and France aren't much better at 60%

    Clearly there are others factors however Portugal has less that 100 cases (10m population) vs Spain 17000 cases (46 million)

    I'm sure there'll be some anomalies, but basic hygiene seems to be lacking in some Mediterranean countries
    A sign from Kazakhstan on an Italian ran project. No fishing down the bog.


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    Quote Originally Posted by paulscnthorpe View Post
    If you listened to the chief scientist yesterday (not Boris the buffoon), the reason for not shutting schools etc stands to reason. The time will come in a fortnight or so, this is based on scientific evidence, at least educated guess..


    As you stay the numbers in Italy are still rocketing, so people will think what's the point the next time they tried to impose it
    Does make you wonder if the 'experts' are looking at this from the wrong angle. They are suggesting we do nothing, so that the virus spreads steadily across the country and infects 60%+ of the population. Which is great because it's probably the best scientific way to generate some immunity and reduce the impact of future outbreaks. It's a cold and clinical response that doesn't at all take into account the vulnerable in the population. They are fair game it seems. A couple two doors away from me are bricking it because their 8 year old son had meningitis and got pneumonia recently. If he catches coronavirus now whilst the Government is happily letting it spread around the schools, sports events and workplaces then he's got a great chance of being another statistic a lot of people mock and suggest it's not even worth bothering with. Those kind of moral dilemas are probably what persuaded other countries to take common sense measures to stop the spread.

    The numbers in Italy going up are still linked to people coming forward with symptoms after being isolated. 8 day incubation periods then a week with the illness progressing will cause those numbers. The reality is the number of infected is exponentially higher than the published figures. For example Britiain has declared about 800 or so cases. There will no doubt be 10,000+ walking round, going to school, work etc because they don't feel too unwell to do so, but who are happily spreading the virus. Ohio estimated today that 100,000 have the virus there, but they only have 13 confirmed cases. Doing the maths on that to our population doesn't bode well if even a very small % of those end up needing hospital treatment, it's a temporary game over for the health service. Some health service regions have already started cancelling outpatient clinics and non-urgent surgeries.

    The Government is also massively overestimating the people of this country. We're not stoic and brave anymore, we're weak and selfish and pathetic. The shops will be empty in a couple of weeks as idiots panic buy everything they can and they'll no doubt throw three quarters of it away as well rather than use it. The inevitable supply chain issues caused by the Governments approach will cause major problems. The impact on jobs and the economy is also a massive concern. We're set for months of closures, supply problems and disruption rather than a couple of weeks of semi-lockdown which is then repeated when it breaks out again in the future.

    I'm not going to claim I'm an expert, but anyone expecting this 'minor flu-like non-problem' to just go away with no impact to them is perhaps being naive. Italy were far quicker to act than we were and they are on the verge of collapse in the hospitals. We get this wrong and it could be a big error.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Saddened! View Post
    Does make you wonder if the 'experts' are looking at this from the wrong angle. They are suggesting we do nothing, so that the virus spreads steadily across the country and infects 60%+ of the population. Which is great because it's probably the best scientific way to generate some immunity and reduce the impact of future outbreaks. It's a cold and clinical response that doesn't at all take into account the vulnerable in the population. They are fair game it seems. A couple two doors away from me are bricking it because their 8 year old son had meningitis and got pneumonia recently. If he catches coronavirus now whilst the Government is happily letting it spread around the schools, sports events and workplaces then he's got a great chance of being another statistic a lot of people mock and suggest it's not even worth bothering with. Those kind of moral dilemas are probably what persuaded other countries to take common sense measures to stop the spread.

    The numbers in Italy going up are still linked to people coming forward with symptoms after being isolated. 8 day incubation periods then a week with the illness progressing will cause those numbers. The reality is the number of infected is exponentially higher than the published figures. For example Britiain has declared about 800 or so cases. There will no doubt be 10,000+ walking round, going to school, work etc because they don't feel too unwell to do so, but who are happily spreading the virus. Ohio estimated today that 100,000 have the virus there, but they only have 13 confirmed cases. Doing the maths on that to our population doesn't bode well if even a very small % of those end up needing hospital treatment, it's a temporary game over for the health service. Some health service regions have already started cancelling outpatient clinics and non-urgent surgeries.

    The Government is also massively overestimating the people of this country. We're not stoic and brave anymore, we're weak and selfish and pathetic. The shops will be empty in a couple of weeks as idiots panic buy everything they can and they'll no doubt throw three quarters of it away as well rather than use it. The inevitable supply chain issues caused by the Governments approach will cause major problems. The impact on jobs and the economy is also a massive concern. We're set for months of closures, supply problems and disruption rather than a couple of weeks of semi-lockdown which is then repeated when it breaks out again in the future.

    I'm not going to claim I'm an expert, but anyone expecting this 'minor flu-like non-problem' to just go away with no impact to them is perhaps being naive. Italy were far quicker to act than we were and they are on the verge of collapse in the hospitals. We get this wrong and it could be a big error.
    You make some very good points, like everything 1000 dead in the paper means nothing to you, but if it's two of your family it's everything..

    You make a good point about the lockdown, if we lockdown everything now for two weeks people will do it, however when we come out of it, it'll rocket again, meaning when we do it again people will think "it never worked last time, what's the point"

    Similarly I see why they want a large population to get it and become immune, it isn't ever going away and will return year on year. If we only say have 20% of the population get it, we'll be in the same situation next year (barring a vaccine)

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    Quote Originally Posted by paulscnthorpe View Post
    I read a statistic that only 57% of Italians (this is from 2015 so no bias https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ind...711.html%3famp) admit to washing their hands after going the toilet..

    If you don't wash after the toilet, when do you wash? Spain and France aren't much better at 60%

    Clearly there are others factors however Portugal has less that 100 cases (10m population) vs Spain 17000 cases (46 million)

    I'm sure there'll be some anomalies, but basic hygiene seems to be lacking in some Mediterranean countries
    Iím not sure weíre in a position to criticise. In the bogs at HT against Hudds there was a queue for the sinks and hand dryer for the first time Iíve ever seen.

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    Am I right in saying it's just the older people who have certain "underlying health problems" ?? , are at risk of dying from this virus this includes me by the way . My take on it = the families of the ones at greater risk should be supporting thier parents grandparents ect in the way of doing thier shopping ,picking prescriptions up , everything they possibly can to keep them away from what's known as the "catchment areas" , and I am very lucky in that I am being extremely well looked after , they have even bought myself a thermometer that you stick in your ear lol , it's boring just being housebound BUT , just don't want to take the risk . The younger mob you just be carefull, follow the advice which isnt asking a great deal and I'm sure most families will come through this troubling time .
    roy litherland it's happened i told you it would

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    Just read an excellent article by a Professor involved with Microbial Resistance. In short, 80% of our population, Italy, Ireland, everywhere will catch it. UK policy is to use kids to spread it as their only getting mild symptoms thatís why schools are open. If schools are shut parents take time off & economy suffers & if grandparents step in to be minders theyíre in the risk group & lots die. We need to develop Ďherd resilienceí as do Italy but itíll take us months & sustain the economy while Italian model takes years & wrecks economy & potential civil unrest. The article was longer than this here but thatís the gist of it.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Angry Dave View Post
    A sign from Kazakhstan on an Italian ran project. No fishing down the bog.

    Brilliant. Love it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Legman View Post
    Just read an excellent article by a Professor involved with Microbial Resistance. In short, 80% of our population, Italy, Ireland, everywhere will catch it. UK policy is to use kids to spread it as their only getting mild symptoms that’s why schools are open. If schools are shut parents take time off & economy suffers & if grandparents step in to be minders they’re in the risk group & lots die. We need to develop ‘herd resilience’ as do Italy but it’ll take us months & sustain the economy while Italian model takes years & wrecks economy & potential civil unrest. The article was longer than this here but that’s the gist of it.


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    A rather excellent summary of the UK’s stance.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostik Bailey View Post
    A rather excellent summary of the UK’s stance.
    Isn't it just. That is a superb post
    Dave Woods: the guy who makes Eddie Hemmings look like a decent commentator

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    Quote Originally Posted by paulscnthorpe View Post
    I read a statistic that only 57% of Italians (this is from 2015 so no bias https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ind...711.html%3famp) admit to washing their hands after going the toilet..

    If you don't wash after the toilet, when do you wash? Spain and France aren't much better at 60%

    Clearly there are others factors however Portugal has less that 100 cases (10m population) vs Spain 17000 cases (46 million)

    I'm sure there'll be some anomalies, but basic hygiene seems to be lacking in some Mediterranean countries
    I'm currently in Spain, the official figure today is 4200. There are several Regional and National actions and restrictions currently in place, or being implemented tomorrow. They are predicting as many as 10,000 by end of next week.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Belgian Saint View Post
    I'm currently in Spain, the official figure today is 4200. There are several Regional and National actions and restrictions currently in place, or being implemented tomorrow. They are predicting as many as 10,000 by end of next week.
    Apologies, can't even find where I got the 17000 from now?!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Fridge View Post
    Isn't it just. That is a superb post
    Thank you the main author was Professor Ian Donald


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