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Thread: Corona virus strikes.

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    Learning All The Songs Jackbit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ralph Fridge View Post
    Not so sure it does
    Ralph it has a great deal of difference in that WHO, are trying to focus, in the minds of all leaders, to prepare for what's coming around the world.

    https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/deta...-11-march-2020

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bostik Bailey View Post
    No Whos on second base
    No Who's on first ,What's on second

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    Quote Originally Posted by chalfie View Post
    No Who's on first ,What's on second
    I'd follow WHO anyday over a KBW

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jackbit View Post
    Ralph it has a great deal of difference in that WHO, are trying to focus, in the minds of all leaders, to prepare for what's coming around the world.

    https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/deta...-11-march-2020
    I'm not trying to say this is not a problem and not one that may get much worse in the future. I am in a vulnerable age group, but at this stage never really think twice about it. Up to now 4,300 people have died, which is quite a lot, but 650,000 die from flu each year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Belgian Saint View Post
    I'm not trying to say this is not a problem and not one that may get much worse in the future. I am in a vulnerable age group, but at this stage never really think twice about it. Up to now 4,300 people have died, which is quite a lot, but 650,000 die from flu each year.
    I'm not sure where you're getting your stats, but I'd bet the majority of that number die in third world countries without proper medical care. I think the UK average is around 600 deaths per year. The thing with flu is that it has a vaccine. Most years they are pretty successful in shutting down the main strands of it and the people that die are people that are teetering on the edge anyway, contracting flu is just one final illness that their bodies can no longer cope with. Or people in tthe high risk categories who were complacent or too arrogant to get the vaccine. Coronavirus doesn't yet have a vaccine so an awful lot more people are going to get it if people don't listen to the health advice and an awful lot more in the high risk categories specifically. Germany for example estimates that 58 million Germans could contract coronavirus. Based on a 1% mortality rate that's as many as your flu figure roughly. If it matched Italy's 6% figure, it'd be 3.5m people. Sounds unlikely, but you can see why the reaction to it is what it is. I'm itching to buy more toilet roll at the mere thought of that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jackbit View Post
    Ralph it has a great deal of difference in that WHO, are trying to focus, in the minds of all leaders, to prepare for what's coming around the world.

    https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/deta...-11-march-2020
    I get you. Thanks for the link
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    Quote Originally Posted by Saddened! View Post
    I'm not sure where you're getting your stats, but I'd bet the majority of that number die in third world countries without proper medical care. I think the UK average is around 600 deaths per year. The thing with flu is that it has a vaccine. Most years they are pretty successful in shutting down the main strands of it and the people that die are people that are teetering on the edge anyway, contracting flu is just one final illness that their bodies can no longer cope with. Or people in tthe high risk categories who were complacent or too arrogant to get the vaccine. Coronavirus doesn't yet have a vaccine so an awful lot more people are going to get it if people don't listen to the health advice and an awful lot more in the high risk categories specifically. Germany for example estimates that 58 million Germans could contract coronavirus. Based on a 1% mortality rate that's as many as your flu figure roughly. If it matched Italy's 6% figure, it'd be 3.5m people. Sounds unlikely, but you can see why the reaction to it is what it is. I'm itching to buy more toilet roll at the mere thought of that.
    The real problem is that too many people do not seem able to have any sense of proportion. Specialists advise that for the majority contracting the illness, it will be no worse than a mild case of flu. Despite this, there are cases of panic buying with forecasts of doom and gloom abounding. At the same time, these people don’t think twice about jumping into their cars even though over 1.3m died across the world in road traffic accidents last year.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tabasco View Post
    The real problem is that too many people do not seem able to have any sense of proportion. Specialists advise that for the majority contracting the illness, it will be no worse than a mild case of flu. Despite this, there are cases of panic buying with forecasts of doom and gloom abounding. At the same time, these people dont think twice about jumping into their cars even though over 1.3m died across the world in road traffic accidents last year.

    First off, my thinking with regards to myself is similar to yours, in that I don't fear catching it because it's likely to be nothing serious for me personally (reasonably fit guy in his late 40's)

    But I do have big concerns for my parents (just either side of 80) and if I get this, I'll be contagious before the symptoms appear. I see them 2 or 3 times a week.

    Additionally, the biggest potential problem for the country is if there is an Italy-style peak of cases that overwhelms the NHS. This means that those with serious symptoms who need hospitalisation, won't be able to receive the care they need and therefore the chances of them dying ramps up substantially. But it's not just Covid-19 patients this impacts. If the NHS is overwhelmed, the number of normal emergencies continues - the heart attacks, strokes, etc that need emergency treatment. The NHS, run down by Tory 'austerity' for the last decade, already struggles to cope. If they're already overwhelmed or at breaking point due to Covid-19, then many of those people suffering from non-Covid-19 medical emergencies are going to die as well.

    So I understand the need to 'iron out' the anticipated peak, to slow infection rates which gives the NHS a fighting chance of keeping its head above water and Covid-19 infected/other people needing emergency medical treatment have a better chance of surviving.

    And yet, the most serious flaw in the government's plan is testing. There are countless tales of people returning from infected areas, being refused testing as they don't have specific symptoms, go about their normal business, then developing symptoms, being tested, and shown to have Covid-19. In the intervening several days, they've been contagious and spreading the virus.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Webbo Again View Post
    First off, my thinking with regards to myself is similar to yours, in that I don't fear catching it because it's likely to be nothing serious for me personally (reasonably fit guy in his late 40's)

    But I do have big concerns for my parents (just either side of 80) and if I get this, I'll be contagious before the symptoms appear. I see them 2 or 3 times a week.

    Additionally, the biggest potential problem for the country is if there is an Italy-style peak of cases that overwhelms the NHS. This means that those with serious symptoms who need hospitalisation, won't be able to receive the care they need and therefore the chances of them dying ramps up substantially. But it's not just Covid-19 patients this impacts. If the NHS is overwhelmed, the number of normal emergencies continues - the heart attacks, strokes, etc that need emergency treatment. The NHS, run down by Tory 'austerity' for the last decade, already struggles to cope. If they're already overwhelmed or at breaking point due to Covid-19, then many of those people suffering from non-Covid-19 medical emergencies are going to die as well.

    So I understand the need to 'iron out' the anticipated peak, to slow infection rates which gives the NHS a fighting chance of keeping its head above water and Covid-19 infected/other people needing emergency medical treatment have a better chance of surviving.

    And yet, the most serious flaw in the government's plan is testing. There are countless tales of people returning from infected areas, being refused testing as they don't have specific symptoms, go about their normal business, then developing symptoms, being tested, and shown to have Covid-19. In the intervening several days, they've been contagious and spreading the virus.
    The last point you make is a very good one. A mate of mine lives in China, he returned home as soon as it the outbreak happened and was tested but I can't help thinking how many people have slipped through the net, you only have to think about the huge amount of Chinese communities around the world and the potential for it to spread.
    Plus you get selfish people who go into work coughing and sneezing all over and spreading all kinds about.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angry Dave View Post
    The last point you make is a very good one. A mate of mine lives in China, he returned home as soon as it the outbreak happened and was tested but I can't help thinking how many people have slipped through the net, you only have to think about the huge amount of Chinese communities around the world and the potential for it to spread.
    Plus you get selfish people who go into work coughing and sneezing all over and spreading all kinds about.
    The Aintree Hospital doctor who tested positive has been slammed in certain parts of the media for being irresponsible, yet upon returning from a skiing holiday in Italy, he contacted 111 and his bosses and asked to be tested. As he was showing no symptoms, he was told he didn't need to be tested and instructed to return to work. So he did, then a few days later - after being involved in the treatment of a lot of patients - begins with the symptoms. Only then is he tested, and it's positive.

    The brother of a mate of mine also returned from Italy. He got a sore throat and bit of a cough, rings 111. They ask him a load of questions about not just the symptoms, but whether he had contact with someone now confirmed to have developed CV. He hadn't to the best of his knowledge. They tell him he doesn't need testing. Two days later, it's confirmed that the resort he was in has a number of CV cases, and they'd closed the apres-ski facilities. He rings 111 again to explain this. They again go through the symptoms with him. They ask again if he knows of being in contact with a confirmed CV case. He doesn't know, but repeats about the resort. He's again told he doesn't need to be tested.

    The 111 staff are under-trained and largely inexperienced. 111 itself is under-resourced (hence the common reports of having to wait around an hours to speak with someone). It always was an attempt to cut NHS costs.

    And it isn't working.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Webbo Again View Post
    The Aintree Hospital doctor who tested positive has been slammed in certain parts of the media for being irresponsible, yet upon returning from a skiing holiday in Italy, he contacted 111 and his bosses and asked to be tested. As he was showing no symptoms, he was told he didn't need to be tested and instructed to return to work. So he did, then a few days later - after being involved in the treatment of a lot of patients - begins with the symptoms. Only then is he tested, and it's positive.

    The brother of a mate of mine also returned from Italy. He got a sore throat and bit of a cough, rings 111. They ask him a load of questions about not just the symptoms, but whether he had contact with someone now confirmed to have developed CV. He hadn't to the best of his knowledge. They tell him he doesn't need testing. Two days later, it's confirmed that the resort he was in has a number of CV cases, and they'd closed the apres-ski facilities. He rings 111 again to explain this. They again go through the symptoms with him. They ask again if he knows of being in contact with a confirmed CV case. He doesn't know, but repeats about the resort. He's again told he doesn't need to be tested.

    The 111 staff are under-trained and largely inexperienced. 111 itself is under-resourced (hence the common reports of having to wait around an hours to speak with someone). It always was an attempt to cut NHS costs.

    And it isn't working.
    I don't doubt that for a second, I'm ing sore about the NHS full stop at the moment, not the actual staff but those who run it. I've only used that 111 once before and it was a load of rubbish, basically a book passing exercise to my mind although I also see the other point as you only need to look at the amount of idiots that go to the doctors or A&E with very minor things so it's a bit of double edged sword.

  12. #37
    Learning All The Songs The.Reverand's Avatar
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    The difference is flu has a mortality rate of around 0.1%. Currently this pandemic is nearer a 2% mortality rate.

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    The issue with any pandemic or mass outbreak, is the only data to go off is since the first reported cases. This could have been around for longer, undetected and therefore the level of threat/non-threat isn't an accurate marker, it's just the best we've got.

    Globally mortality rate against known cases is 3.6%, with 53% recovered and the remaining still aciive cases.
    Primarily it appear to be the elderly with underlying medical conditions that are the most at risk. As it stands no deaths of under 10 have been reported.

    Austrian goverment has advised children to stay with parents not grandparents, on the princle that they are not primarily at risk, however are more likely to spread it, with grandparents being nearer or in the at risk categories.

    As stated above it's the level of testing that is an issue, whilst we don't want to clog the testing facilities with every sniffle and cough as suspected COVID-19, the lack of urgency coming from the 111 advisory service isn't quite in line with media reporting or WHO statements.

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    From what I've been told, next Friday will be the day when 'emergency measures' will be put into place in the UK.

    This will include the closure of schools and restrictions on large gatherings. Still a big question mark about professional sports games, but fairly likely they will need to be played behind closed doors. Short-term and RL might be able to ride it out, but if it's longer term then it could financially destroy RL in this country. From a Saints perspective, we host the Good Friday game this year.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Harvest View Post
    The issue with any pandemic or mass outbreak, is the only data to go off is since the first reported cases. This could have been around for longer, undetected and therefore the level of threat/non-threat isn't an accurate marker, it's just the best we've got.

    Globally mortality rate against known cases is 3.6%, with 53% recovered and the remaining still aciive cases.
    Primarily it appear to be the elderly with underlying medical conditions that are the most at risk. As it stands no deaths of under 10 have been reported.

    Austrian goverment has advised children to stay with parents not grandparents, on the princle that they are not primarily at risk, however are more likely to spread it, with grandparents being nearer or in the at risk categories.

    As stated above it's the level of testing that is an issue, whilst we don't want to clog the testing facilities with every sniffle and cough as suspected COVID-19, the lack of urgency coming from the 111 advisory service isn't quite in line with media reporting or WHO statements.
    I was reading about 4 cases where the people were confirmed to have had it, but have now recovered. All under 45 y/o. Probably chosen because of their specific different symptoms, but they varied from 1) barely noticed they had it; 2) like a bout of flu, but recovered within a week; 3) like a really bad dose of flu lasting over a fortnight; struggled to breath for about 2 days; strong pain in muscles, sinuses, ears; eased for a couple fo days, then came back as bad as ever for another few days before dissipating; 4) developed into pneumonia, in hospital on ventilator for 3 weeks (he was in his late 20's with no underlying medical condition)
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    Sky covering the Catalans v Leeds game on their You Tube Channel. Suppose to be no geographical restrictions and I presume free. Also suppose to be on the red button.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Webbo Again View Post
    I was reading about 4 cases where the people were confirmed to have had it, but have now recovered. All under 45 y/o. Probably chosen because of their specific different symptoms, but they varied from 1) barely noticed they had it; 2) like a bout of flu, but recovered within a week; 3) like a really bad dose of flu lasting over a fortnight; struggled to breath for about 2 days; strong pain in muscles, sinuses, ears; eased for a couple fo days, then came back as bad as ever for another few days before dissipating; 4) developed into pneumonia, in hospital on ventilator for 3 weeks (he was in his late 20's with no underlying medical condition)
    It's a worrying time, from reading around (which is always dangerous, especially with this type of thing) some of the recovery/vulnerability can also be atributed to past exposure to a similar virus, which may increae antibody production rate alongside unkown genetic factors.
    The warmer summer weather may help in Europe, however it's a second wave of cases potentially forecast for the Autumn/Winter which could really bring everything to a halt.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blue Harvest View Post
    It's a worrying time, from reading around (which is always dangerous, especially with this type of thing) some of the recovery/vulnerability can also be atributed to past exposure to a similar virus, which may increae antibody production rate alongside unkown genetic factors.
    The warmer summer weather may help in Europe, however it's a second wave of cases potentially forecast for the Autumn/Winter which could really bring everything to a halt.
    I must admit, I'm a little worried myself, as I've mentioned previously I'm travelling to Denmark on Sunday with work, I'm not overly bothered about the flight or airport but it has crossed my mind that a fair few of the workforce are from poorer European countries and while they have a great work ethic they'd still go to work with their hand hanging off. Unfortunately, recent financial constraints mean I don't have much choice in going but I'm not exactly looking forward to it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Webbo Again View Post
    This will include the closure of schools and restrictions on large gatherings.
    This will in turn put further pressure on the NHS, how many staff are going to now have to take time off to look after their kids..

    I can see why they're delaying the delay phase (we should know more at 4:30)

    Not to mention the impact on the economy

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    Quote Originally Posted by Saddened! View Post
    I'm not sure where you're getting your stats, but I'd bet the majority of that number die in third world countries without proper medical care. I think the UK average is around 600 deaths per year. The thing with flu is that it has a vaccine. Most years they are pretty successful in shutting down the main strands of it and the people that die are people that are teetering on the edge anyway, contracting flu is just one final illness that their bodies can no longer cope with. Or people in tthe high risk categories who were complacent or too arrogant to get the vaccine. Coronavirus doesn't yet have a vaccine so an awful lot more people are going to get it if people don't listen to the health advice and an awful lot more in the high risk categories specifically. Germany for example estimates that 58 million Germans could contract coronavirus. Based on a 1% mortality rate that's as many as your flu figure roughly. If it matched Italy's 6% figure, it'd be 3.5m people. Sounds unlikely, but you can see why the reaction to it is what it is. I'm itching to buy more toilet roll at the mere thought of that.
    I got the figures mainly from Science direct and WHO. I agree that most of the deaths are probably in 3rd world countries, but Italy which is an EU country had 68,000 deaths from Flu over the 2 years up to 2017. I didn't look at the detail of death by age bracket etc. But like Flu, whatever you read says that Covid 19, like flu will affect the elderly in the main.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angry Dave View Post
    I must admit, I'm a little worried myself, as I've mentioned previously I'm travelling to Denmark on Sunday with work, I'm not overly bothered about the flight or airport but it has crossed my mind that a fair few of the workforce are from poorer European countries and while they have a great work ethic they'd still go to work with their hand hanging off. Unfortunately, recent financial constraints mean I don't have much choice in going but I'm not exactly looking forward to it.
    Hi Dave, hope this may be of help to you if you've not already seen it? You will need to keep checking for the updates, and I wish you well.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/travel-a...avirus#history

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jackbit View Post
    Hi Dave, hope this may be of help to you if you've not already seen it? You will need to keep checking for the updates, and I wish you well.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/travel-a...avirus#history
    Thanks very much, I'll read it properly tomorrow.

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    Catalans v Leeds now cancelled...
    Humans are more concerned with having than being.

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    Quote Originally Posted by 49er View Post
    Catalans v Leeds now cancelled...
    No surprise, it's not just about fans the clubs have to protect the players as well.

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