Originally Posted by
johnnyl
Correct, and yet it is this that has been wrong. The interpretation of probabilities and this is confusing to a lay person.
I have provided you with a good resource to understand that aspect of it more, you can choose to look into it if you wish. The lady who was convicted of killing 2 of her kids when both died from cot death was convicted on the basis that the probability of 2 separate children from the same familiy dying from cot death is (for example) 1 billion to one. This was confused with there is a 1 billion to 1 chance of her being innocent.
They are not the same thing.
The second thing that you conveniently ignore is that you can wrap anything up, simplify it, explain it, put it into laymens terms however the following is a fact. 12 people have to make a decision based on their PERCEPTION. A decision that is based on information that they have received but then cognitively distorted, ammended, had influenced by any preconceived biases, influenced by other people or stronger members of the jury, influenced heavily by ONE PERSON such as an expert witness as per my example above. Human decision making is flawed, it isnt even a matter of opion it is a hugely known fact.